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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

However the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent underperformers ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still