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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.