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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the team was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Older Squad Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test side being over 30, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, change is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in series and a history of initially small injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition setting in much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can sense that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.